The tragedy of errors

"Events in history occur twice," said Engels once.

"The first time as a tragedy and the second as a farce,"he added. Looking at what has been happening in Pakistan over the years, a slight modification of this dictum might be in order. If the partition of India was a tragedy, what has been happening since in that unfortunate country is a succession of tragic farces. Pakistan's uneasy coexistence with democracy has been repeatedly interrupted by spells of military dictatorship that together add up to 33 of the 60 troubled years after its birth. The most recent of such usurpations of popular elected governments was by General Musharraf in 1999 and it has lasted till day with almost continuous turmoil.

The latest installment of this soap operatic serial is the highly publicized arrival of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan. The Supreme Court of Pakistan had already granted permission for Mr Sharif's arrival.However, the former Prime Minister was sent back within hours of landing to Saudi Arabia where he had been living in exile for the last seven and half years. There is bound to be appeal to the Supreme Court on this flagrant contempt of the orders of a court which has repeatedly showed itself recentlyas refreshingly libertarian in an otherwise pervasive  ambience of authoritarianism.Things have been on the boil for some time now in Pakistan as the term of the President ends in November and general elections are due soon thereafter. Over the years, General Musharraf has been hankering for legitimacy of sorts for his dual role as Army chief and President even while being under increasing attacks from various quarters. He has been bending and changing the original Constitution and has even built a political party of his own.

 

Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif

(whose regime he overthrew in a bloodless coup in 1999),the exiled leaders of the two major political parties, insistent on his shedding his dual office, he has his task cut out in going through the promised democratic process of seeking the people's consent for its new rulers. As a prelude to this crucial event, he has been fitfully negotiating with Benazir Bhutto, whom he considers to be more amenable to his overtures. This has been an inconclusive exercise. Sharif,on the contrary, hasn't forgotten his old grievance of being booted out of power by the general and is determined to take advantage of the forthcoming elections and the general's supposed loss of control over events. Unlike in the case of Benazir,the US is not 'overly' friendly with Sharif, as he had ignored the American wishes and exploded a nuclear bomb in 1998.Musharraf's hostility to Sharif has therefore got American blessing.

This is clear in his ordering Sharif's deportation even if it meant taking on the judiciary with which he has already been on a collision course for the last year or so.This recent development has been of momentous significance in the last year or so, because of his having unwisely taken on the  Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudry by suspending him from his office. The action led to a popular outcry that wasnot confined to lawyers with the result that the general has had to acquiesce in his reinstatement. The general public has been so emboldened by such assertion of the judiciary's power that public interest litigation has become almost a popular sport. The court has since passed many other orders including a direction to the government to account for missing persons and Sharif's return from exile. And it is almost certain that when the petition against this comes for hearing,Musharraf will be told off in no uncertain terms.

For Musharraf these are trying times.In fairness to him, after the first flush of his coup, he has been trying in several ways to legitimise his rule by trying to establish an equilibrium between the demands of a modern civil society, the fanaticism of the mullahs and the increasingly articulate democratic forces in the polity. In this enterprise, he has had to face repeated attempts on his life by his enemies and by Islamic fundamentalists. This became particularly menacing after his raid in the Lal Masjid in Lahore.

Throughout this period, he has had to cope with American pressure to get enmeshed in its crusade against global Islamism. After long years of involvement,under American instigation against Afghan resistance to Russian occupation, Pakistan found itself, again under American instigation, compelled to take on Afghan outfits of the likes of al-Queda, especially after the 9/11 attack in New York in 2002.Pakistan's long history as a trusted client of the United States has compelled Musharraff to fall in with America's global strategy against Islam. It hasn't helped him in the eyes of the public opinion that some 300 odd Pakistani troops are held prisoners in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is on the boil. The President of that country would become a reckless astrologer who would dare predict the outcome of the present turmoil. Particularly unpredictable is the attitude of the armed forces themselves. Musharraf is reluctant to shed both the offices. It is far from clear at the moment what kind of new equations would be forged between the military and civil authorities should he give up his generalship to appease the public.Pakistan is no stranger to military dictatorship with the likes of Yahya Khan, Zia ul Haq having usurped civil power from time to time. So it is not entirely inconceivable that President Musharraf receives his own comeuppance from one of his own breed. One can only keep one's fingers crossed